The Perfect Storm

Good Morning,

As we enter the dog days of summer there is a feeling of a perfect storm brewing. No, it's not in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa, it's right here in the old radio business. The forecast coming up!

But first I want to proudly announce FigMedia1's association with "The Frank Show." (we never reveal the names of clients unless there is a reason and permission.) Currently heard on KFMA Tucson, & KDOT Reno, TFS is the next generation of personality radio. Frank has assembled a wonderful staff of people that produce one of the most creative, topical and just plain funniest shows on the radio. And if you were to look at the ratings you would see a lot of #1's next to the call letters of the stations they are on. We expect to add many more call letters (and #1's) to the list. Expect "The Frank Show" to launch nationally soon. If you are interested in hearing more about the show, just drop me a line. I will speak to you personally & confidentially in advance of the marketing. (already 2 top10 markets are interested)

Over the next few months there will be a confluence of events that will cause this "Perfect Radio Storm". What are they?

1. Howard Stern leaving commercial radio will cause attention to be paid to his replacement. This in turn will start a dialogue on the merits of personality radio vs. the "more music" "sounds like your I-Pod" kind of formats. (by the way, no radio personality wants to follow Howard. EVERYONE wants to be the show "that replaces the show" that replaces Howard).

This event will cause radio programmers to take a hard look at spoken word programming.

Many stations currently carrying Stern are looking seriously at FM Talk. In fact, quite a few Infinity stations already are in the format. (Chicago, LA, Dallas, Detroit, DC to name a few). Clear Channel, Entercom, Greater Media, Citadel, Cumulus, and others are taking a hard look at the format. (all have at least one on the air now!) The conversion rate to FM Talk will look like this years "Jack" format. (my prediction will be after the Fall Book) There are many cities where there are NO FM talk stations at all! Would you rather be the 3d AC, Country, or ANY format vs. being the FIRST station to offer spoken word, proprietary programming? (and - it penetrates buildings better than AM - good for "on the job" listening).

This will result in,

2. A huge demand for high rated, revenue producing personalities. Ask any GM , "Who are getting the BIG raises at stations these days?" Answer? Personality shows (morning or otherwise) that are finding an audience. Advertisers are looking for something different. Something or someone to move their products. Smart station managers are locking up these high rated shows. And they are paying big bucks for them. This leaves a void for creative on air people who have made a name for themselves.

FM Talk has evolved from "Howard wannabe's" ("bring in the strippers!") to a topical yet edgy presentation. Many are rock stations without the music. A few are just like their AM counterparts, with conservative hosts and a morning news presence. Names like Mancow, Beck, Bob & Tom and yes, The Frank Show, offer a real alternative to "another 20 in a row." Actually they play none in a row. They have moved past the PD that insists on playing 3 or 4 songs per hour "to keep our music position". Ask any rock radio station carrying Stern. Very few (much as they try) have any specific music images at all! There will be a scramble to put these "new talk" people on the air. The "new talk" shows will be edgy but not dirty.

This will result in,

3. Advertisers embracing this format over the 2nd or 3d Country, Classic Rock, or AC in the market. This in turn will cause more specific types of talk or personalities catering to specific demos. Is Delilah a music show? No way. People listen to her because of her TALKING. Not because of the songs. Lovelines, sports rights, and attitude driven personalities will lead this charge into the new appreciation for content.

Remember, over the next 2-5 years the industry will be rolling out HD radio. http://www.ibiquity.com/hdradio/ This will increase the number of channels available in most markets by 5x. What are we going to put on these stations?

This will result in,

A new appreciation for programming, and the people who create it. "Classic Lite-FM?", "Rockin' 50's Oldies", "New Country Releases" are the obvious choices. Simulcasting the low powered sister AM is another. Even "books on tape" and Podcasts have a chance. New brands, new ideas may actually have a chance here. A typical market that currently has 35-40 FM stations could have as many as 200 HD stations.

If you are a GM, or PD, Company President or Regional, and you suddenly found yourself with another 5, 10, even 20 stations per market, what would you do?

Well, you can always find music to play. But people? personalities? content creators? You may want to look for a raincoat, there's a storm brewing!

Best Regards,

Fig